AguaSegura: Understanding and advancing climate change adaptation for water security in the Andes of Peru

Recent high-level reports such as the IPCC have emphasized the urgency of substantially increasing speed, scope and depth of adaptation to climate change. The tropical Andes have been highlighted as particularly affected by and vulnerable to climate change, in particular with relation to water security. While the scientific community has recognized the problem, the efforts in the region have so far been too fragmented and non-comprehensive. In the tropical and specifically the Peruvian Andes water insecurity is driven by climate change and socioeconomic pressures, threatening the availability of water resources, in terms of quantity, quality and access. With rapidly retreating glaciers, seasonal water supply becomes increasingly unreliable for social-ecological systems. Additionally, exposed sulfide- and ferruginous-bearing rocks and sediments in deglaciating headwaters intensify acid rock drainage (ARD) processes which considerably deteriorate water quality and threaten human and ecosystem health in downstream areas. In this context it is paramount to design and implement feasible and effective adaptation measures to address water security. However, feasible and effective adaptation is challenged by large uncertainties in future climate scenarios, socioeconomic dynamics, including population growth, uncertain future water demands, fragmented policies and governance structures, and high levels of vulnerability of marginalized communities. To address these interconnected issues, adaptation requires an integrative approach that balances environmental, social, and economic priorities and remains sufficiently flexible, and this project responds to this enormous scientific and societal challenge. The overarching goal of the project is to develop an integrative and iterative framework to study feasible and effective adaptation measures for water security in the glacierized Peruvian Andes. This framework will be developed and implemented through a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods and transdisciplinary approaches led by the Swiss (University of Zurich, UZH) and Peruvian researchers (Pontificial Catholic University of Peru, PUCP). Specific goals include the analysis of current and future impacts of climate and socioeconomic changes on water resources, identifying current and future limits to adaptation, and exploring potential adaptation measures that are feasible, effective, and contextually relevant. A top-down approach will simulate climate-glacier and hydrological interactions to project future dynamics in water supply and quality. A complementary bottom-up approach will engage local communities, gathering socioeconomic data essential for identifying limits to adaptation. An iterative and inter/transdisciplinary approach will combine findings by continuously refining the identification of feasible and efficient adaptation measures for water security. To support this, advanced hydrological, hydrochemical, and hydroeconomic models will be coupled, with exploratory modeling used to capture a range of climate scenarios, ARD impacts, and economic consequences. An integral part of the project is the continuous series of capacity building efforts between PUCP and UZH and associated institutions, and consistently pursuing approaches that considerate diversity, inclusivity, and gender aspects. The expected outcomes of this project include a replicable framework for adaptation in high-mountain regions in the water sector, and support for locally applicable, feasible and effective adaptation measures. The results will be channeled into scientific publications, science-policy processes such as the IPCC AR7, and local, national and global policy-making setting. The project will support closing critical gaps between scientific research and policy application, to foster urgently needed progress in incremental and transformational climate change adaptation.